Unsettled weather ahead in the FLX

I have discussed the subtleties of weather forecasting here a number of times, especially when it comes to severe weather and flooding.Everything that I said in the past applies to tomorrow’s forecast. Thankfully, today will be quiet so I can focus more on what may or may not happen tomorrow.Here is the set-up. Low pressure is over Oklahoma/Arkansas this morning. A warm front (red line) extends east where it joins up with a stalled out front left over from Sunday night’s storm (orange line). The low is forecast to track northeast into Michigan tomorrow, while the warm front likewise pushes warm, moist air north towards us.The uncertainty that has a huge impact on tomorrow’s forecast is the position of the warm front and its associated clouds and rain. Tomorrow morning, this front should be pushing through the Finger Lakes. If it goes a bit faster, we will get warmer and more humid. If it is slower, morning clouds and rain will keep the temperatures cooler.If some heat and humidity come into the region, I am concerned about some severe weather and additional flash flooding. At this time, I would say I am more concerned about flash flooding, due to the rich moisture in the atmosphere and a potential for slow moving or repeated storms. I do not think the severe threat should be dismissed either, though it is much more uncertain.In our region, it is very difficult to get a clear-cut big severe weather day. Often times, morning clouds and precipitation keep the atmosphere from becoming primed for storms. There are times when the clouds move out and we are able to get the necessary heating. Very frequently, this does not become apparent until early, if not late morning on the day of the event. That will be the case Wednesday, so make sure you check back to the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center for updates.- FL1 Staff Meteorologist Drew Montreuill

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