Powerful Hurricane Florence, which is prompting dire warnings and mass evacuations as it churns toward the Carolinas, could make itself felt in upstate New York in the middle of next week.
But how much rain and wind Florence might bring — and whether it reaches us at all — are still unclear.
The uncertainty arises from a divergence in the output of various computer models that predict the movement of weather systems. Some models say Florence will come ashore but remain near the coast as it drifts northward.
Other models project a track that will take the storm inland and then north into Virginia, western Maryland, Pennsylvania and, potentially, upstate New York.
The National Hurricane Center seems to favor the latter projection; it shows heavy rain into southern Pennsylvania by next Tuesday. Veteran local forecaster Kevin Williams tends to agree.
"I favor the inland push," said Williams, who operates a forensic meteorology company, Weather-Track.
"The timing would be Tuesday-Wednesday."