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Winter storm to bury FLX overnight

The timing of this event is going to make tomorrow morning’s commute dangerous, if not nearly impossible for those areas under the axis of heaviest snow. Snow will begin to fall late tonight and increase overnight. Snowfall rates within the heaviest band will likely be 1-2″ of snow per hour right at the time most people would be traveling to work or school. Snowfall rates of 1″ per hour will be possible even outside of this band. A rumble of thunder is even be possible.The main question at this point is WHERE will this band set up? Models still disagree on this, ranging from the heart of the Finger Lakes to northern Pennsylvania. I designed the purple 7-14″ ranges on the map to act as a possible range for the band of heaviest snow, then went with a blend of the models for the red, 8-16″ area.The northern Finger Lakes seem unlikely to get to a foot except in localized places. It also seems very likely that the entire region will end up with at least 6″ of snow, regardless of where the heaviest band sets up.There likely will be a surge of dry air that cuts precipitation off early for areas south and east of Ithaca, but this won’t happen until the snow intensity has already fallen Wednesday afternoon. For much of the Finger Lakes, we will continue to see light snow into Wednesday evening.I have been very cautious and skeptical of this storm all along, but I think I am now satisfied with what I see on the model to dismiss my two main concerns of sleet mixing in and a dry slot cutting down snow totals and impact.I will continue to closely monitor this and will update my snow map tonight by 7 or 8 pm.FL1 Meteorologist Drew Montreuil, FingerLakes1.com Local Weather Center

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