Thunderstorms on Thursday will bring the risk for heavy downpours, lightning and possibly even some small hail during the afternoon and evening hours.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop during the morning hours in the western portions of the state — with storms becoming more widespread during the afternoon hours for the Finger Lakes region.
While hail and damaging winds are a slight risk — flooding rains will be the biggest concern, as the heavy rain will come in a very short period of time.
According to FLX Weather Meteorologist Drew Montreuil conditions for severe weather will generally be unfavorable.
He explains why:
The overall conditions for severe weather are low today. Temperatures will rise into the 70s and low 80s across the Finger Lakes, but will also be warm higher up in the atmosphere.
This will create an environment that is generally unfavorable for robust thunderstorm activity.
Still, there is a minimal chance for a few storms to become briefly strong with some gusty winds and small hail.
Of greater concern today will be the heavy rain threat. Numerous thunderstorms could move repeatedly over the same areas this afternoon, leading to some excessive rainfall amounts.
The ground over the Finger Lakes can take 2-3 inches of rain in a three hour period before flooding becomes a serious threat. A couple very localized areas could approach that threshold, particularly in the northwestern Finger Lakes between Rochester, Genesseo, and Geneva.
The flash flood threat may persist into the evening further east as steady moderate to heavy rain develops.
The overall threat for flooding is low and most areas will be able to handle the rain today without many problems.
Father’s Day Weekend Preview from the National Weather Service
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 7am, then a chance of showers. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 81. South wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. South wind around 10 mph.
A chance of showers, mainly after 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. South wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of thunderstorms, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 11am. Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
For the latest, check out the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center and download the FingerLakes1.com App for iOS and Android to get the latest on your smartphone.