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Forecast this week shares similarities to ‘historic’ one from 2006, says weather service

The predicted convergence of two weather systems in the Eastern U.S. this week looks a lot like the late June 2006 deluge that caused widespread flooding in Upstate New York, the National Weather Service said.

The position of the sprawling systems most closely resembles the pattern in 2006 that dumped nearly a foot of rain in the Catskills, the weather service said.

“The top analog to this weather pattern is June 26-28, 2006, which is when a historic flood event impacted much of Central New York,” the weather service’s forecast discussion said.

Two systems are coming together now, the weather service said: A long low pressure system in the upper atmosphere, called a trough, in the Southeast; and a big ridge of high pressure just off the Atlantic coast.

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“Where those were located in 2006 is a reasonably close match to where we think they’ll be this coming week,” said weather service meteorologist Mike Jurewicz.

That does not guarantee a repeat of 2006, Jurewicz stressed. Many factors could be different this time, especially because much of the rain is expected to come in daily rounds of thunderstorms, which can dump heavy rain in one area and sprinkles 20 miles away.

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